Jun. 8th, 2017

lovingboth: ([default])
I don't know what the election result is going to be. The 'hope for the best, expect the worst' approach avoids some angst when the Leopards Eating People's Faces party wins, but your face is still cat food...

Anyway, here they are:

1. This is Theresa May's last general election as leader

No matter if it goes well (significantly increased majority) or badly (not increased majority) for the Tories, her personal campaign has been absolutely awful. Given the gifts of an enormous poll lead both as a party and personally as PM, she's managed to make a coronation procession into some sort of contest.

The Tories are ruthless if they think they're going to lose and May will be gone after the Brexit negotiations. Even if those are a triumph, which looks incredibly unlikely, someone else will get to win the following election.

2. It isn't Jeremy Corbyn's

It's obvious that the Tories want him as Labour leader. By May making it a contest, enough of the Labour membership will still do too.

3. It probably isn't Tim Farron's

The LibDems have been frozen out of this election. Nick Clegg has been a much better performer than Farron, but even he's been marginal in impact. It'd probably take Farron wanting to stand down and Vince Cable to regain Twickenham for him to go.

4. There are three previous elections that it could be most like:

1983: Someone who's already proved themselves actively harmful to the country is re-elected in a landslide, 'cos big event (Falklands / Brexit) and an opposition leader who plays really badly amongst many voters (Foot / Corbyn) despite being very popular in sections of their party.

2010: Unexpected hung Parliament.

1992: It turns out to be one you didn't want to win because of a disastrous failure to a policy that both Tories and Labour agreed on (ERM / Brexit) and which lead to the party that did win being out of power for over a decade.

The second is obviously the hope (and if it is, for ghods sake, change the bloody voting system! I am sick of living on constituencies where my vote doesn't matter, never mind parties getting working majorities with about 36.8% of the votes - what the Tories got in 2015 leading to this utter mess) but I suspect it's going to be the last one...

.. because Brexit is going to be a disaster and May and the Tories have absolutely attached themselves to it, with no public reservations. Labour would have got into the same mess, not least thanks to having a leader who is really less of a Remainer, but will be able to say 'not our fault'.

Name stuff

Jun. 8th, 2017 10:05 pm
lovingboth: ([default])
I can remember being pleased to have 'Ian' as a name when I was in infant school: it was very easy to spell and I was not good at spelling.

Hardly anyone gets it wrong. An occasional extra 'i' gets added, especially if they know I have Scottish heritage, but not very often. Even with that, it's still basically pronounced the same.

My surname on the other hand...

... I can remember loudly correcting the deputy head at my secondary school when he got it wrong during an assembly of some sort while I was in the upper sixth form. I'd only been there six years, FFS, he'd been there throughout that time, and there were only about 250 pupils left at that point.*

I am also forever having to spell it out on the phone etc.

Interestingly, Newark is somewhere where this hardly ever happens. It almost certainly helps that a prominent local vet practice is Newman Watters. Their site is by one of the main roads, so anyone coming into town from the northbound A1 sees it.

Fortunately, I am much more attached to my first name than my surname. It was easy for me to agree for JA to take L's surname for example.

* It was a three class per year, i.e about 90 pupils, grammar school that was being converted into the local sixth form college as part of going comprehensive. The year that was two below us was the last grammar school intake, and some will have left at 16.

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Ian

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