Ian (![[personal profile]](http://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
lovingboth) wrote2017-06-08 05:19 pm
lovingboth) wrote2017-06-08 05:19 pm
A few predictions
I don't know what the election result is going to be. The 'hope for the best, expect the worst' approach avoids some angst when the Leopards Eating People's Faces party wins, but your face is still cat food...
Anyway, here they are:
1. This is Theresa May's last general election as leader
No matter if it goes well (significantly increased majority) or badly (not increased majority) for the Tories, her personal campaign has been absolutely awful. Given the gifts of an enormous poll lead both as a party and personally as PM, she's managed to make a coronation procession into some sort of contest.
The Tories are ruthless if they think they're going to lose and May will be gone after the Brexit negotiations. Even if those are a triumph, which looks incredibly unlikely, someone else will get to win the following election.
2. It isn't Jeremy Corbyn's
It's obvious that the Tories want him as Labour leader. By May making it a contest, enough of the Labour membership will still do too.
3. It probably isn't Tim Farron's
The LibDems have been frozen out of this election. Nick Clegg has been a much better performer than Farron, but even he's been marginal in impact. It'd probably take Farron wanting to stand down and Vince Cable to regain Twickenham for him to go.
4. There are three previous elections that it could be most like:
1983: Someone who's already proved themselves actively harmful to the country is re-elected in a landslide, 'cos big event (Falklands / Brexit) and an opposition leader who plays really badly amongst many voters (Foot / Corbyn) despite being very popular in sections of their party.
2010: Unexpected hung Parliament.
1992: It turns out to be one you didn't want to win because of a disastrous failure to a policy that both Tories and Labour agreed on (ERM / Brexit) and which lead to the party that did win being out of power for over a decade.
The second is obviously the hope (and if it is, for ghods sake, change the bloody voting system! I am sick of living on constituencies where my vote doesn't matter, never mind parties getting working majorities with about 36.8% of the votes - what the Tories got in 2015 leading to this utter mess) but I suspect it's going to be the last one...
.. because Brexit is going to be a disaster and May and the Tories have absolutely attached themselves to it, with no public reservations. Labour would have got into the same mess, not least thanks to having a leader who is really less of a Remainer, but will be able to say 'not our fault'.
Anyway, here they are:
1. This is Theresa May's last general election as leader
No matter if it goes well (significantly increased majority) or badly (not increased majority) for the Tories, her personal campaign has been absolutely awful. Given the gifts of an enormous poll lead both as a party and personally as PM, she's managed to make a coronation procession into some sort of contest.
The Tories are ruthless if they think they're going to lose and May will be gone after the Brexit negotiations. Even if those are a triumph, which looks incredibly unlikely, someone else will get to win the following election.
2. It isn't Jeremy Corbyn's
It's obvious that the Tories want him as Labour leader. By May making it a contest, enough of the Labour membership will still do too.
3. It probably isn't Tim Farron's
The LibDems have been frozen out of this election. Nick Clegg has been a much better performer than Farron, but even he's been marginal in impact. It'd probably take Farron wanting to stand down and Vince Cable to regain Twickenham for him to go.
4. There are three previous elections that it could be most like:
1983: Someone who's already proved themselves actively harmful to the country is re-elected in a landslide, 'cos big event (Falklands / Brexit) and an opposition leader who plays really badly amongst many voters (Foot / Corbyn) despite being very popular in sections of their party.
2010: Unexpected hung Parliament.
1992: It turns out to be one you didn't want to win because of a disastrous failure to a policy that both Tories and Labour agreed on (ERM / Brexit) and which lead to the party that did win being out of power for over a decade.
The second is obviously the hope (and if it is, for ghods sake, change the bloody voting system! I am sick of living on constituencies where my vote doesn't matter, never mind parties getting working majorities with about 36.8% of the votes - what the Tories got in 2015 leading to this utter mess) but I suspect it's going to be the last one...
.. because Brexit is going to be a disaster and May and the Tories have absolutely attached themselves to it, with no public reservations. Labour would have got into the same mess, not least thanks to having a leader who is really less of a Remainer, but will be able to say 'not our fault'.