On NZ and risk

I was asked if I'd have gone to White Island when it was at 'level two' on the zero to five scale of volcanic activity last week.

.. probably.

One answer is no, I have done White Island once, and I don't feel the need to do it again.

The other answer is had I not been, and been in NZ last week (and the sea conditions been ok, which they usually weren't) then.. probably, yes.

There is a 'it probably won't happen to me' attitude there, which is one of the reasons that the closing of the viewing platforms on the trains* because someone might be injured on them, despite it never having happened in a couple of decades, was so odd. (And annoying.)

So the fabulous 'Luge' rides (small go-carts going fast downhill, crack on wheels as far as I am concerned) in Rotorua have a significant first aid centre because of the number of injuries that happen on it, but they stay open. Not only might people be injured, a couple of people an hour actually are when it's busy, from 'road rash' (scraped skin) to broken bones. But they stay open. (The mountain bike trails in the same park are serious enough to host major events = way too scary for me, and again generate broken bones.)

But that visit was after my trip White Island. I went to that having seen the main museum in Auckland's display on volcanos and death on the first day there.

Auckland is by far the biggest city in New Zealand and is built on the remains of several volcanos (= very fertile soil!) The museum itself is on top of one of them. Unlike say Edinburgh, the geology means it's more or less certain that at some point in the future, a new volcano is going to do serious damage to the city, possibly wiping it out... and yet the city keeps growing.

And plenty of people have already died because of volcanos in New Zealand. On White Island, on the line between Auckland and Wellington on Christmas Eve 1953 (I stopped at the memorial to the 153 passengers who died on the overnight train following a bridge being destroyed), and others.

The big walk I did is between two active - but nowhere near as active as White Island - volcanos! About two years ago, one showed signs of doing something and there are signs on the route about what to do if you hear a rushing noise caused by a mix of lava and slush and rock on its way (it might as well say 'die', in some places!)

As a visitor, you already know White Island is an active volcano - I think it's been active for decades if not the whole of human history there - and relatively few people would go there if it weren't. But there's an element of trust that the tour people wouldn't go off into something that was seriously dangerous.

Having said that, it's not made clear as it might be that going from level one ('active') to level two ('increased activity') is a significant step and it's not that far to a level three ('minor eruption').

Partly, this is because the scale goes up to five and three doesn't sound so risky. In a sense, it isn't - the people who died were unlucky: close to the crater lake when it suddenly became more active. You didn't need to be very far from it to be not dead, and you're not that close for that long. (Tours are very clear that you don't wander around, but follow specific routes, because some of the surface is very fragile and the consequences of falling into a hot mud pool are quite likely to be fatal.)

The geology also means that significant bits of New Zealand are earthquake zones. Sadly, I didn't have time to visit Napier (largely destroyed in 1931, 256 dead, rebuilt with gorgeous art deco) never mind Christchurch (185 dead in February 2011, another one later that year) but I want to.

* They're open again with, as suggested by me, slightly different barriers to stop you sticking your head out too far.